Don’t let anyone tell you the college basketball season is just beginning this weekend.
Whoever hasn’t followed the first several months has missed a lot — titanic games between the two best teams in the sport, coaches on the outs, and adversity for some dynastic programs.
But now it’s March, and everyone is in full NCAA Tournament mode. With a bracket just eight days away, here are three questions we still need to sort out over the final weekend of the regular season and conference tournament week.
Who will snag the fourth No. 1 seed?
This should be our most straightforward answer. In the committee’s mock bracket reveal a month ago, they gave top seeds to Auburn, Duke, Alabama and Florida, and I argued that everyone was sleeping on Houston. Fast forward to today, and Kelvin Sampson’s steamroller has become the consensus third No. 1 seed with Auburn and Duke.
Alabama, Tennessee and Florida have all jostled for No. 1 seed consideration, but the Gators have the worthiest case. They’re No. 4 in the NET (the Vols and Crimson Tide are right behind at Nos. 5 and 6); they have the most wins and the fewest losses of this trio; and they just pulled out a thrilling 99-94 head-to-head win over Alabama on Wednesday after splitting two games with Tennessee over the winter. The Tide have lost four of six, and the Vols are also starting to show some cracks.
Assume Auburn occupies the South Region, Duke heads East and Houston goes to the Midwest, meaning Florida flies out to the West Regional in San Francisco — where coach Todd Golden formerly led the Dons.
Can Indiana still sneak into the field?
Feb 23, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Mike Woodson reacts to a play during the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images Hoosiers fans have been fed up with Mike Woodson for some time now, and after a string of losses in January and February, Indiana announced that Woodson would step down at season’s end. Almost immediately, the Hoosiers started winning again, including big ones over Michigan State and Purdue. It would be tremendously funny if Indiana makes the NCAA Tournament now and maybe wins a game or two.
They’re one of the last teams in the field in Joe Lunardi’s ESPN projection, and it’s hard not to view Saturday’s regular-season finale against Ohio State as a play-in game. The winner finishes ninth in the Big Ten standings, and Indiana would complete a season sweep with a victory. The Hoosiers are 20 spots behind Ohio State in the NET but have no losses outside Quadrant 1 on their resume.
What’s the right seed for disappointments Kansas, UConn and Gonzaga?
Fun fact: These three programs ranked in the top six of the Associated Press preseason poll, and all of them disappeared from the rankings by late February. They’re all going to make the tournament, but not in the upper crust that we’re used to.
Take Kansas. The Jayhawks have been a top-four seed in every single NCAA Tournament since 2001, before the Bill Self era even began. They’ve played such mediocre basketball that that trend is certain to end on Selection Sunday. Over at Bracket Matrix, the average of 103 recent mock brackets predicts Kansas, UConn and Gonzaga all as No. 8 seeds.
If nothing else, that could create some very interesting second-round matchups with some nervous No. 1 seeds, if only due to the brand names on the underdogs’ jerseys and their seasoned coaches.
