The Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl lore is hardly super.
Four straight trips, four straight losses.
One heartbreaking finish followed by three blowouts. Over thirty years have passed, and Buffalo still hasn’t been back.
That’s about to change.
Behind MVP candidate Josh Allen, a commanding run game and an opportunistic defense, the Bills are one win from a trip to New Orleans for their first Super Bowl since “The Lion King” was released in 1994.
First, Buffalo has to exorcise some playoff demons in the AFC Championship against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who have beaten Allen’s Bills all three times they’ve faced off in the postseason.
After that, Buffalo will battle either the ground-and-pound Philadelphia Eagles or the upstart Washington Commanders for the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 9.
The Bills have an edge over each of the three remaining teams, and I’ll explain how they’ll conquer Kansas City before toppling whichever NFC East squad they face for the title.
Up first: The two-time defending champion Chiefs, who the Bills will beat because …
They run the ball well.
Buffalo averaged the ninth-most rushing yards in the regular season (131.2) and has continued to roll in the playoffs. The Bills racked up 210 yards against Denver’s third-ranked run defense in a wild-card game and pierced Baltimore’s top-ranked unit for 147 in the divisional round, averaging at least 4.1 yards per carry in both contests.
James Cook has done most of the work on the ground this postseason, but Allen has chipped in 66 rushing yards and can be especially dangerous on improvised runs. The Chiefs learned the hard way in Week 11, when Allen rumbled for a 26-yard score on fourth-and-2 to seal Buffalo’s 30-21 win.
Kansas City had the league’s eighth-best run defense in the regular season but looked vulnerable against Houston in the divisional round. The Texans averaged 5.1 yards per carry, with Joe Mixon logging 88 yards on 18 totes despite playing with an injured ankle.
The Chiefs sacked Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times last Saturday, but their pass rush should be less of a threat Sunday if the Bills establish the run early and sustain it throughout the game.
Now onto the Big Easy, where the Bills will beat the Commanders because…
They avoid turnovers.
Jayden Daniels has been fabulous leading Washington’s offense and will almost certainly win Rookie of the Year, but his teammates on defense have delivered some of the Commanders’ biggest plays of the postseason.
Against top-seeded Detroit in the divisional round last Saturday, Washington racked up a season-high five takeaways—including a pick-six—that led to 21 points in a 45-31 upset win. The week before, the Commanders forced a crucial fourth-quarter fumble that led to a touchdown in their 23-20 wild-card victory over Tampa Bay.
Washington is 12-3 this season when it forces at least one turnover and 2-2 when it doesn’t. That makes it even more important for the Bills to protect the football, which they’ve done better than every team this season. Buffalo committed a league-low eight turnovers during the regular season and has not had a giveaway since Week 16.
The Commanders have made teams pay for turning it over in the postseason, but the Bills will be in great shape if Allen and company avoid uncharacteristic mistakes that supply Washington with vital jolts of momentum.
Even if the Commanders don’t emerge from the NFC, the Bills will beat the Eagles because…
They can contain Saquon Barkley.
Philadelphia’s star running back embarked on just the ninth 2,000-yard campaign in league history and has appropriately carried the Eagles through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Buffalo’s run defense ranked 12th during the regular season, but the first half of the divisional round gave a glimpse of how stout that unit can be. After letting Derrick Henry run for 199 yards in Week 4, the Bills held Baltimore’s bruising back to just 21 yards before halftime last Sunday.
Henry eventually got going in the second half and finished with 84 yards as the Ravens ended up with 176 on 30 carries. Buffalo’s defense softened after halftime as Baltimore effectively balanced the run and the pass, but the Bills still forced three turnovers against a Ravens team that had committed just 11 all season.
Buffalo should be able to lock in on Barkley without worrying too much about the Eagles’ passing game, which was the fourth least proficient during the regular season (187.9 yards per game). Barkley has remained the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense during the playoffs, with his 324 rushing yards accounting for just over half of the team’s total offense.
The Bills won’t stymie Barkley, but their opportunistic defense will make enough plays to support Allen and help deliver Buffalo its long-awaited first title.
